A Mathematical model approach for prevention and intervention measures of the COVID–19 pandemic in Uganda.

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dc.contributor.author Mbabazi, Fulgensia Kamugisha
dc.contributor.author Gavamukulya, Yahaya
dc.contributor.author Awichi, Richard
dc.contributor.author Olupot–Olupot, Peter
dc.contributor.author Rwawire, Samson
dc.contributor.author Biira, Saphina
dc.contributor.author Luboobi, Livingstone S.
dc.date.accessioned 2021-09-28T07:38:41Z
dc.date.available 2021-09-28T07:38:41Z
dc.date.issued 2020-05
dc.identifier.citation Mbabazi, F. K. . . . [et al.]. (2020). A Mathematical Model Approach for Prevention and Intervention Measures of the COVID–19 Pandemic in Uganda. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.05.08.20095067. en_US
dc.identifier.uri https://doi.org/10.60682/09rp-p697
dc.description Research article en_US
dc.description.abstract The human–infecting corona virus disease (COVID–19) caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus 2 (SARS–CoV–2) was declared a global pandemic on March 11th, 2020. Current human deaths due to the infection have raised the threat globally with only 1 African country free of Virus (Lesotho) as of May 6th, 2020. Different countries have adopted different interventions at different stages of the outbreak, with social distancing being the first option while lock down the preferred option for flattening the curve at the peak of the pandemic. Lock down is aimed at adherence to social distancing, preserve the health system and improve survival. We propose a Susceptible–Exposed–Infected–Expected recoveries (SEIR) mathematical model to study the impact of a variety of prevention and control strategies Uganda has applied since the eruption of the pandemic in the country. We analyze the model using available data to find the infection–free, endemic/infection steady states and the basic reproduction number. In addition, a sensitivity analysis done shows that the transmission rate and the rate at which persons acquire the virus, have a positive influence on the basic reproduction number. On other hand the rate of evacuation by rescue ambulance greatly reduces the reproduction number. The results have potential to inform the impact and effect of early strict interventions including lock down in resource limited settings and social distancing. Keywords: COVID–19, SEIR model, Awareness, Infection rate, control measures, en_US
dc.description.sponsorship Busitema University, Strathmore University, Mbale Clinical Research Institute en_US
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.publisher Busitema University en_US
dc.subject COVID–19 en_US
dc.subject SEIR model en_US
dc.subject Awareness en_US
dc.subject Infection rate en_US
dc.subject Control measures en_US
dc.title A Mathematical model approach for prevention and intervention measures of the COVID–19 pandemic in Uganda. en_US
dc.type Article en_US


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