Evaluating indigenous and scientific weather forecasting techniques for resilience to weather events among fishing communities in jinja

Abstract

The aim of the study was to examine how evaluating indigenous and scientific weather forecasting techniques influence resilience to weather events among fishing communities in Jinja. The objectives were to analyse trends of weather events, assess the relative effectiveness of scientific forecasts compared to indigenous forecasts,identify community preparedness, identify response strategies, and determine the impact of integrating forecasts on preparedness. The results, derived from survey responses and meteorological data analysis, show that 92.2% of participants apply indigenous methods using indicators like cloud patterns and wind shifts, while 70.2% rely on scientific sources, mainly radios and Television. Comparative analysis revealed that scientific forecasts recorded 90 Hits (67.5%) for rainfall and 92 Hits (67.6%) for wind, while indigenous forecasts had 47 Hits (34.3%) for rainfall and 44 Hits (32.4%) for wind. Correlation analysis established a 30% positive relationship between scientific forecasts and observed rainfall and wind records. Event trend analysis highlighted strong winds, heavy rainfall, and floods as the most frequent hazards. Using SPI-3, SPI-6 indices, and annual rainfall anomaly records for Jinja (1991– 2023), wet years between 2019–2023 were confirmed. Preparedness strategies identified through survey responses included ensuring seaworthiness of vessels (24.8%), pulling boats ashore (15.8%), and minimizing fishing activity (15.8%). Response strategies emphasized maintaining vessel safety and scaling down fishing, reflecting proactive risk management. Regarding integration, 60.3% of respondents agreed both methods provide reliable forecasts, though scientific forecasts were consistently more effective. Overall, analysis confirms that scientific forecasts surpassed indigenous forecasts in accuracy. The study therefore recommends strengthening stakeholder participation and capacity building in applying scientific forecasts, enhancing dissemination systems, and engaging communities in integrating both approaches for wider acceptance. Further, expanding weather stations across the Lake Victoria basin emerged as critical for improving scientific accuracy, enhancing adoption, and ultimately strengthening fisherfolk safety and reducing vulnerability to extreme weather risks.