Abstract:
The aim of the study was to examine how evaluating indigenous and scientific weather forecasting
techniques influence resilience to weather events among fishing communities in Jinja. The
objectives were to analyse trends of weather events, assess the relative effectiveness of scientific
forecasts compared to indigenous forecasts,identify community preparedness, identify response
strategies, and determine the impact of integrating forecasts on preparedness. The results, derived
from survey responses and meteorological data analysis, show that 92.2% of participants apply
indigenous methods using indicators like cloud patterns and wind shifts, while 70.2% rely on
scientific sources, mainly radios and Television. Comparative analysis revealed that scientific
forecasts recorded 90 Hits (67.5%) for rainfall and 92 Hits (67.6%) for wind, while indigenous
forecasts had 47 Hits (34.3%) for rainfall and 44 Hits (32.4%) for wind. Correlation analysis
established a 30% positive relationship between scientific forecasts and observed rainfall and wind
records. Event trend analysis highlighted strong winds, heavy rainfall, and floods as the most
frequent hazards. Using SPI-3, SPI-6 indices, and annual rainfall anomaly records for Jinja (1991–
2023), wet years between 2019–2023 were confirmed. Preparedness strategies identified through
survey responses included ensuring seaworthiness of vessels (24.8%), pulling boats ashore
(15.8%), and minimizing fishing activity (15.8%). Response strategies emphasized maintaining
vessel safety and scaling down fishing, reflecting proactive risk management. Regarding
integration, 60.3% of respondents agreed both methods provide reliable forecasts, though scientific
forecasts were consistently more effective. Overall, analysis confirms that scientific forecasts
surpassed indigenous forecasts in accuracy. The study therefore recommends strengthening
stakeholder participation and capacity building in applying scientific forecasts, enhancing
dissemination systems, and engaging communities in integrating both approaches for wider
acceptance. Further, expanding weather stations across the Lake Victoria basin emerged as critical
for improving scientific accuracy, enhancing adoption, and ultimately strengthening fisherfolk
safety and reducing vulnerability to extreme weather risks.
